Finland Might Join Nato Without Sweden
FOREIGN POLICY Turkey's Blockade Puts Stockholm In A Limbo.
At a press conference this morning, Swedish prime minister Ulf Kristersson said that the probability that Sweden and Finland might join Nato “at different speeds” has increased.
This statement comes after weeks of positioning, where Turkey has opened up for letting Finland into Nato while at the same time refusing to ratify the Swedish application.
As the Turkish blockade on Sweden’s Nato entry is on its way of becoming a geopolitical reality, consequences are still unclear. As are the prospects that Turkey might stick to this position even after the country’s election in May.
The Swedish and Finnish Nato applications in May 2022 were political earthquakes. The speedy debates and blitz applications would never had taken place if it weren’t for another earthquake, with a higher number on the Richter scale.
Putin’s full front attack on Ukraine sent shock waves to all European capitals. Except for obviously Kyiv, and possibly Warsaw and the capitals of the Baltic states, few were hit harder than Helsinki.
Non-aligned Finland, sharing a 1300 kilometers long land border with Russia, became independent after the Russian Revolution and has since fought two wars with the Soviet Union. During the Cold War, “Finlandization” was a term for a smaller independent state adapting their policies in the interest of a powerful neighbour.
Finland’s vulnerable position on the verge of the Warsaw Pact was an important factor behind Sweden’s choice to stay non-alligned after World War II. Even as Norway and Denmark, who had been occupied by Nazi Germany and was liberated by allied forces, joined the Atlantic Pact at its founding in 1949.
Most Finns and Swedes never saw a reason to join Nato after the end of the Cold War. It was an age of peace and co-operation, and the world was hoping for Russia to join other East and Central European countries in democratization and strengthening of civil liberties.
This turned out to be a hope in vain. The European security order based upon the 1975 Helsinki Accords, including a principle of territorial integrity, was flushed away when hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers started their march on Kyiv on February 22, 2022.
Three months after the full scale invasion started, hordes of people who wouldn’t have imagined to ever favour membership in an American-led nuclear armed military alliance had shifted positions. Sweden and Finland, both at that time led by Social Democratic prime ministers who had until recently argued for a continued non-allignment policy, had sent in applications to Nato.
This northern expansion of the Atlantic Pact is the most evident result on the European map so far of Putin’s escalated war on Ukraine.
Most parliaments were quick at ratifying the applications. Today, only 2 out of 30 Nato countries are lagging behind. Both of them out of political reasons.
Turkey’s president Erdogan has been the main obstacle to Nato’s northern expansion. His main argument has been security concerns considering terror classed organisations with a presence in Sweden.
And he’s right to say that there are inhabitants in Sweden who sympathise with Kurdish militias. Many of them were themselves born in Turkey, and fled to Sweden as their human rights were violated.
Erdogan knows this very well, not least as he himself was involved in years of talks with the PKK before the peace process broke down in July 2015.
The existance of PKK sympathisers is not unique for Sweden. But Germany doesn’t apply for Nato membership.
Erdogan’s regime has done its best to use its bargaining position to press the Swedish legal system to return Turkish dissidents to the hands of Ankara. While at the same time telling the Biden administration that a good way to make Turkey more well willing towards expanding Nato in the Baltic region is to sell Erdogan some F-16 fighters.
Sweden has followed suit. Counterterrorism laws have changed and previous embargoes on arms sales have been eased.
Hungary’s Victor Orban has kept a lower profile, but has recently expressed criticism towards Sweden and Finland for spreading lies on the conditions for democracy and the rule of law in the country.
Yet again, this Northern criticism isn’t unique. Arguably, Orban’s real opponent in this struggle is the EU as a whole, hesitant to send a single cent to the country due to corruption and autocracy charges.
Hungary’s vote on ratification is now postponed. Meanwhile, negotiations with Turkey was re-opened after being in the deep freeze after a far-right provocateaur burned a Quran outside the Turkish embassy in Stockholm.
When applying, Swedish and Finnish leaders stressed that the countries would walk “hand in hand” into Nato. Now, Helsinki sounds different, as Turkey is indicating it might split the applications and vote for Finnish accession before the Swedish one.
The prospect of a split ratification, with the largest of the Nordic countries in the center of Baltic Sea geography still outside the alliance, made the Nato general secretary taking personal leadership of the negotiations.
Last week Jens Stoltenberg, himself a Norwegian former Social Democrat prime minister, presided talks between Sweden, Finland and Turkey in Brussels. But no breakthrough was made.
“The most important thing today is that we have gathered”, Sweden’s negotiator Oscar Stenström told reporters after the meeting, stressing that the parties would have more meetings in the future. But today, the Swedish PM lowered expectations of a rapid solution.
Finland goes to the polls to elect a new parliament on April 2. Turkey has presidential and parlimentary elections on May 14. And Nato will summit in Vilnius in June 11-12.
Now, a Finnish entry in Nato without Sweden in the coming weeks is becoming more and more likely. While Sweden’s ratification seems to be postponed to after the Turkish election, or even later.
Sweden and Finland’s choice to join Nato was about achieving collective security guarantees against an aggressive neighbour. Now, Turkey’s blockade might place Sweden in a limbo.
Not non-aligned, but also not in an alliance.